Velocity‑Based Training—A Critical Review
Reviewed by John Baur, PT, DPT, OCS, CSCS, FAAOMPT
Guppy, Kendall, and Haff review the strengths, limitations, and best‑use cases of velocity‑based training (VBT) for strength and conditioning. They focus on three core programming strategies that use barbell velocity: (1) predicting daily 1‑repetition maximum (1RM) from a load–velocity profile (LVP), (2) adjusting training loads set‑by‑set from deviations in the LVP, and (3) controlling within‑set volume using velocity‑loss thresholds. Importantly, the review emphasizes evidence from free‑weight conditions to ensure ecological validity for real‑world practice.
Why autoregulation with velocity?
Traditional loading by fixed percentages of a prior 1RM or by repetition‑maximum (RM) zones can misalign training with an athlete’s day‑to‑day status. Percentage prescriptions do not account for changes in strength driven by life stress, concurrent training, and accumulated fatigue, while train‑to‑failure models increase strain and can compromise adaptation when combined with other modalities. These drawbacks motivated interest in objective autoregulation using the actual speed achieved with a given load in real time. A lower‑than‑usual velocity at a given %1RM indicates either a drop in maximal strength and/or higher fatigue; higher velocity at that same % indicates the opposite. Adjusting loads from these signals can keep the stimulus appropriate without over‑ or under‑shooting on any given day.
The load–velocity profile (LVP).
The LVP models the relationship between bar speed and relative load for a given lift. After early work used polynomial fits, later studies showed linear regression works as well and is simpler. However, LVPs are individual (athlete‑specific) and exercise‑specific; generalized group profiles miss meaningful differences in velocity at a given %1RM, and profiles do not transfer across lifts. Figure 1 on page 5 illustrates distinct LVPs for bench press, squat, and deadlift, underscoring that each exercise requires its own profile if velocity will guide loading.
Can LVPs predict daily 1RM?
This was an early, attractive idea: measure velocities across a few warm‑up loads, plug them into the LVP, and infer today’s 1RM (using an assumed or measured minimum velocity threshold at 1RM, “v1RM”). In practice, this approach performs poorly in free‑weight contexts. Multiple studies show systematic overestimation of free‑weight 1RM (e.g., back squat and bench press), with error growing as athlete strength increases and with “two‑point” shortcuts. Even using a generalized v1RM (instead of an individualized one) does not fix precision; it can double the standard error. Some machine‑learning models and Smith‑machine data look promising, but they lack evidence of agreement (not just correlation) and do not generalize to free weights. The authors conclude that day‑to‑day 1RM prediction via LVP is not yet feasible for free‑weight lifting and risks misprogramming by assigning loads beyond current capacity. Directly testing 1RM at planned time points remains the sound choice.
Using the LVP to modulate loads set‑by‑set.
A more defensible use is to compare today’s measured velocity to the profiled velocity for the planned %1RM and adjust external load accordingly. A common heuristic is to change the load by ±5% when the observed mean concentric velocity deviates by more than ±0.06 m·s⁻¹ from the profile. Short‑term studies show this can reduce perceptual stress and time‑under‑tension while maintaining or improving jump and strength outcomes—useful when fatigue management is paramount. The review recommends this approach primarily in‑season, when the priority is keeping form high and fatigue low rather than maximizing volume. A key, often‑overlooked limitation is logistics: building accurate LVPs for multiple athletes and lifts entails dedicated testing (1RM plus loads up to ~90% 1RM), rest between sessions, and ongoing monitoring, which can be time‑consuming in team environments.
Velocity‑loss thresholds to control within‑set volume.
Another popular VBT tool is to terminate a set once velocity drops by a set percentage from the first (or fastest) rep. Lower thresholds (≈10–20%) align with strength/power emphasis and less overall fatigue; higher thresholds (≈30–40%) allow more volume and favor hypertrophy. Evidence indicates 10% velocity‑loss can produce greater strength gains than percentage‑based, to‑failure work, and that 20% can improve jump outcomes with less volume than 40%, while 40% tends to drive larger hypertrophy but also a high rate of sets to failure (≈56% in one study)—counterproductive in phases where fatigue control matters. The review cautions that unconstrained sets to a fixed velocity‑loss can yield very different rep counts between athletes (e.g., 2–11 reps at 10% loss; 4–24 at 30% loss; see Figure 2 on page 9), risking accidental drift of the session’s focus. Best practice: use velocity‑loss alongside traditional set‑rep caps so neither fatigue nor intent strays from the mesocycle’s goals.
Monitoring fatigue with the LVP.
Declines in mean velocity during submaximal squats 24–48 hours after a heavy bout track neuromuscular fatigue and typically return to baseline by 72 hours. This suggests practitioners can monitor recovery using velocity during standard training sets (sometimes in concert with countermovement‑jump metrics). The same constraints apply: you need valid, reliable velocity data and exercise‑specific profiles to interpret small changes meaningfully.
Devices: accuracy matters.
All VBT strategies depend on measurement quality. The review summarizes device validity and reliability (Table 1 on page 11). In general, linear position transducers (LPTs) (e.g., GymAware, Vitruve/Speed4Lifts, Tendo) provide stronger validity and lower error than bar‑mounted accelerometers/IMUs, many of which show fixed/proportional bias, poor sensitivity, or only work at slow velocities. A newer laser‑optic device (FLEX) shows promise but needs more research. Figure 3 on page 10 overlays a back‑squat LVP with the smallest detectable difference at each load, reinforcing that device noise can exceed the thresholds coaches use to change loads (e.g., ±0.06 m·s⁻¹), making dependable hardware non‑negotiable. Cost, tether placement, and exercise feasibility also influence tool choice.
Where VBT fits in the year.
Because off‑season aims (high volume, moderate intensity, building capacity) do not require fine‑tuned fatigue mitigation, the review positions VBT—especially load modulation via LVP and velocity‑loss thresholds—as most useful pre‑season and in‑season, when managing fatigue and raising “sporting form” matter most. Use velocity‑loss with hard set‑rep caps (e.g., 3–5×4–6 for strength blocks, cut the set at 20–25% loss or the rep cap, whichever comes first) to keep proximity‑to‑failure within plan.
Motivation and feedback effects.
Beyond loading, real‑time kinematic feedback can enhance intent to move fast, motivation, and competitiveness, leading to superior gains compared with subjective RIR‑based autoregulation at similar volumes in some studies. Still, coaches must guard against technique drift as athletes “chase speed.” VBT augments, but does not replace, good coaching.
Bottom line.
Use VBT where it shines: (a) do not rely on LVPs to predict daily 1RM in free‑weight lifts; (b) do consider set‑by‑set load adjustments from LVP deviations during periods when fatigue control is key; (c) do use velocity‑loss thresholds with set‑rep caps to align the stimulus with block goals; and (d) do invest in accurate measurement (prefer LPTs) if you plan to let velocity drive decisions.
- B. Changes in strength levels. Percentage‑based loading does not account for daily/ongoing changes in strength from stress, training, and adaptation.
- C. Training experience. Novices misestimate RIR more than experienced lifters; accuracy depends on experience.
- A. Increase in maximal strength. Higher‑than‑usual velocity at a given %1RM indicates increased max strength and/or less fatigue.
- B. They are exercise‑specific. LVPs are specific to the lift (and also individual), not transferable across exercises.
- A. Lower‑body exercises. Most free‑weight LVP→1RM studies center on squat/deadlift.
- B. Overestimates 1RM. LVP‑based predictions typically overestimate free‑weight 1RM vs direct tests.
- A. ±5%. Common practice is to change the load by ~±5% when measured velocity departs by >±0.06 m·s⁻¹.
- C. In‑season. Best used in‑season to regulate load and mitigate fatigue without heavy volume.
- A. The time needed to calculate the profile. Building/maintaining athlete‑ and exercise‑specific LVPs is time‑consuming.
- C. 10–20%. Lower velocity‑loss thresholds suit phases with reduced volume and an emphasis on preparedness.
References:
Guppy SN, Kendall KL, Haff GG. Velocity‑Based Training—A Critical Review. Strength Cond J. 2024;46(3):295‑307.